*The seminar will be in English and the event is open to the public.

While global climate projections for temperature, which indicate a general warming, appear to be reasonably robust, this is not the case for precipitation changes. Model results and measurements can vary considerably and depend strongly on the region of interest. Accordingly, the uncertainty for future climate change projections is high, especially for extreme weather events.

The broader Mediterranean region is already identified as a hot spot of climate change, since temperature and precipitation are changing in an opposite direction, intensifying environmental stress in the region. In this type of arid, water-stressed environments improved knowledge and modelling of the hydrology is needed to provide better projections of the inflow of water to dams and of flood hazards, for the development of water allocation strategies, the sustainable exploitation of groundwater resources, and flood protection.

In this context, we investigate the skill of WRF model in reproducing five recent-past extreme precipitation events by testing a large number of parameterization schemes related to rainfall generation. We further dynamically downscale to convection-permitting horizontal resolutions and explore the potential added value. Moreover, we discuss the observational uncertainty over the particular extreme events by comparing three state-of-the-art gridded precipitation datasets. Eventually, the same modelling strategy will be applied in order to study selected extreme rainfall events and precipitation trends of the near future.

Contact: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. / 22 208 702

This event is part of the CyI Seminar Series.  View all CyI events.